While the UK and US are currently maintaining their high borrowing costs, analysts anticipate potential rate cuts later in the summer or early autumn, considering it inevitable. This shift signifies a new phase in the global fight against inflation triggered by the pandemic, fostering hope in major economies that inflationary pressures are abating.
Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, describes this move as significant, marking a transition to a different stage. Just a few years ago, central banks globally were aggressively hiking rates to mitigate economic pressures and inflation. However, this synchronized approach has waned, with various regions taking more variable actions.
In the eurozone, the UK, and the US, which hadn’t faced significant inflation challenges for decades, rates remained at historically high levels. The ECB’s decision reflects confidence in the improving trend, indicating a belief in their ability to bring inflation back to the 2% target level.
Inflation currently stands at 2.6% in the eurozone, 2.3% in the UK (down from over 11% in late 2022), and 2.7% in the US, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Despite this, the Fed remains cautious, concerned that progress on inflation might have stalled due to unexpected growth and substantial government spending.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, notes that the eurozone’s economic situation differs from that of the US. Nonetheless, many forecasters anticipate rate cuts in the US, eurozone, and UK this year, with further adjustments likely in 2025.